Angela Merkel
reaffirms her mature leadership at European level. The choice of Ursula von der
Leyen as the future President of the European Commission certainly comes as a surprise,
but there were a few signals earlier on:
Ø
The
EPP victory in the European elections in May 2019 was expected, but candidate Weber raised questions, even if the
mime of European primary elections gave him some notoriety. You probably
remember the famous
start of his candidacy on the European Parliament lobby...
Ø
I
wrote in September
2018 - I do not think Mrs. Merkel
likes Manfred Weber. All common sense studies in the field of European
Political Communication state that the ultimate surprise element is the only
chance of winning a strong position at EU level. In 2009, Prof. Peter Van Aelst
analyzed the campaign to elect the first President of the European Council,
Herman Van Rompuy, clearly underlining that the basic rules of the political
campaigns did not apply. On
the contrary, we witnessed a reversal of campaign logic. The
whole campaign was following the patent "Van Rompuy was not a candidate to
become President, but only a candidate to be eventually asked to take
office." Mrs Merkel knew this and so nominated Juncker just
two months before the European elections in 2014. At a European level, the
pressure mix is double, especially for the German EPP representative. It is the
smash of the other political, liberal, environmentalist or socialist movements,
but it also has opposition to the German approach at European level ...
Ø
I
thought Mrs Merkel would
accept a European responsibility. President Macron said he
supported such an idea. But we now have a nominated "mini Merkel".
Ursula is a name of the current Chancellor's entourage, so the surprise is not
that big. But I thought, 10
months ago, that Ursula would become the future German Chancellor, however
it seems that a European role was preferred. We can expect two consecutive
mandates, so prepare for 10 years with the current President of the European
Commission, as it was for Delors and Barroso.
Dan LUCA /
Brussels
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