Ursula von der Leyen - from a surprise to detecting signals...

Angela Merkel reaffirms her mature leadership at European level. The choice of Ursula von der Leyen as the future President of the European Commission certainly comes as a surprise, but there were a few signals earlier on:

Ø  The EPP victory in the European elections in May 2019 was expected, but   candidate Weber raised questions, even if the mime of European primary elections gave him some notoriety. You probably remember the famous start of his candidacy on the European Parliament lobby...

Ø  I wrote in September 2018 - I do not think Mrs. Merkel likes Manfred Weber. All common sense studies in the field of European Political Communication state that the ultimate surprise element is the only chance of winning a strong position at EU level. In 2009, Prof. Peter Van Aelst analyzed the campaign to elect the first President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, clearly underlining that the basic rules of the political campaigns did not apply. On the contrary, we witnessed a reversal of campaign logic. The whole campaign was following the patent "Van Rompuy was not a candidate to become President, but only a candidate to be eventually asked to take office." Mrs Merkel knew this and so nominated Juncker just two months before the European elections in 2014. At a European level, the pressure mix is double, especially for the German EPP representative. It is the smash of the other political, liberal, environmentalist or socialist movements, but it also has opposition to the German approach at European level ...

Ø  I thought Mrs Merkel would accept a European responsibility. President Macron said he supported such an idea. But we now have a nominated "mini Merkel". Ursula is a name of the current Chancellor's entourage, so the surprise is not that big. But I thought, 10 months ago, that Ursula would become the future German Chancellor, however it seems that a European role was preferred. We can expect two consecutive mandates, so prepare for 10 years with the current President of the European Commission, as it was for Delors and Barroso.

Dan LUCA / Brussels