Dan LUCA – article in EUobserver: “What competitiveness experts expect from von der Leyen’s State of the Union”

Ahead of Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union speech on 16 September, I tried to anticipate the main competitiveness issues she may address. I based this on discussions with EU experts in Brussels. I published these ideas today in an article in EUobserver.

 

 

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When Ursula von der Leyen addresses the European Parliament on Wednesday (16 September), for her yearly State of the European Union (SOTEU) speech, competitiveness is once again expected to feature prominently. But what will that mean in practice?

 

For our new report, Economic Competitiveness and European Citizens, we asked 11 experts from across Brussels and beyond 12 questions about Europe’s competitiveness debate. 

 

They did not always agree on the nature of the problem, the policies required or whether “competitiveness” is the right lens through which to deal with Europe’s economic challenges.

 

Their expectations for the State of the Union, however, point towards a common theme: von der Leyen is likely to present competitiveness not simply as a question of economic growth, but as the foundation of Europe’s ability to act independently.

 

Take Jan Dröge of Schuman Associates, who expects competitiveness to appear “less as a standalone economic agenda and increasingly as the economic dimension of European independence”. Or Peter Hefele of the Martens Centre, who similarly anticipates links between competitiveness and the single market, energy costs, defence readiness, technological sovereignty and the next EU budget.

 

The international dimension is likely to loom large, according to some experts.

Karel Lannoo of CEPS expects von der Leyen to concentrate on the EU’s place in the world and on defence. Feriel Saouli of SEC Newgate EU believes the stronger message would combine Europe’s commitment to open, rules-based trade with a determination to reduce its vulnerability to coercion, unfair competition and dependence on individual suppliers.

 

Closer to home, Isabelle De Vinck of Political Intelligence thinks the speech might connect competitiveness with two unresolved questions: the EU budget and the commission’s simplification agenda. Elaine Cruikshanks of Acumen Public Affairs argues that the commission needs greater powers if it is to act more quickly and decisively in response to global competition.

 

Roxana Moldovan of Red Flag predicts von der Leyen will emphasise unity, resilience and Europe’s collective strength: competitiveness as something the Union achieves together, rather than the success of individual member states acting alone.

 

Not everyone expects a substantial change of direction; László Andor of FEPS anticipates little departure from the commission’s approach over the past two years, although he sees signs that its language may be beginning to shift.

 

Competitiveness is sure to feature heavily in the speech, just as ‘independence’ dominated last year’s. But will von der Leyen’s commission be able to follow through this year? Our experts empasised the need for concrete deliverables.

 

Hefele hopes to hear a limited number of projects with clear deadlines, financing and political responsibility. These could include mobilising European savings, completing the services market and Energy Union, scaling European technology and strengthening joint procurement. He also expects the agenda to encompass skills, quality jobs and affordability, the issues through which citizens experience the economy directly.

 

Across the interviews, one conclusion stands out. Europe does not need another layer of strategies, slogans and targets. It does need the capacity to deliver and it needs citizens to be able to see and feel the results.

 

Will Wednesday’s speech make that shift? Our experts explain what is at stake, where Europe is falling behind and what a competitiveness agenda built around citizens would require.

 

Dan LUCA / Brussels