2019 is truly a cornerstone of European construction, a kind of "new 1991". Political surprises will appear, and the biggest event will be the appointment of the future president of the European Commission. This might be a surprise of great proportions: Angela Merkel! Let me give you 21 arguments in support of this statement. And to make the thread of ideas easier to follow, I have split up the presentation to highlight some key angles.
Ø After Brexit, Germany is the undisputed leader of the current European Union.
Ø The partnership with France gives Germany a perfect picture, and the new Treaty of Aachen is the perfect tool.
Ø The project for Angela Merkel as German Chancellor is going to end soon and, moreover, the situation in Germany is politically stable (party, coalition, government, etc.).
Ø Weber's launch was obscure, even of bad taste, and I wrote on my blog in September 2018: "I do not think Mrs. Merkel likes Manfred Weber. All common sense studies in European political communication states that the ultimate surprise item moment is the only way to win a strong position at Community level."
Ø Manfred Weber is a modest candidate for President of the European Commission; only 4% of those surveyed recently see him as head of the European executive.
Ø Weber is the ideal candidate to test the market, a well-known process in political communication. The conclusion of the trial: the name does not correspond, but it is acceptable to have (after a break of decades) a President from Germany.
Ø The name of the German Chancellor was mentioned a few years ago as possible Secretary-General of the UN.
Ø The function of President of the European Council is something small, symbolic. It is something similar to that of the President of Germany.
Ø Merkel’s name dominates the Council, so it is very easy to be elected, even if it results in having political enemies, especially in the southern continent.
Ø The EPP will win the European elections, so without any problems this can be accepted by the European Parliament.
Ø The idea of primary elections was superficially implemented in 2014, and in 2019 it was even worse. Even if the Spitzenkandidat procedure is tried once again, it is a "smoke curtain", with little use in current real politics. Let us not forget that Merkel gave a real chance to this mechanism, but the European political parties did not really want to address it. So - even if I am a fan of these European communication processes - there is no problem (even ethically) of reconciling the winner of the competition to appoint the President of the European Commission. This in the event that we will have these debates after this article...
Ø The euro budget needs a strong person to implement it to real decision-makers.
Ø The industrial champions' file is the perfect glove for the restructuring of European industry, and the chancellor indirectly guides the German strategy with the 2030 horizon.
Ø Merkel is the perfect politician to leave space for France to coordinate the dossier of the new EU defence policy.
Ø The chancellor is the perfect interlocutor with a Russia full of natural resources that are so necessary to Germany's economy.
Respect and transparency
Ø With Merkel at the Commission, Brussels will become the first-hand market of political battles, not just a puppets field.
Ø Brussels is truly a centre for European political power and will have a very good communication with European capitals.
Ø No one doubts the support of the chancellor for the European construction. A pro-European is convinced ...
Ø In 2019 we restarted the European construction, and a European Union of 2040 needs great ideas (vision) and real leaders to communicate them.
Ø As the first female president of the European Commission, while the topic of "gender balance" is on the wave.
Ø The first person from Eastern Europe as the President of the European Commission, given the fact that the she was born in East Germany, DDR.
But let's not forget the main argument - why does Angela Merkel want to be the President of the European Commission? Because she can!
Dan LUCA / Brussels