We are now quite at easy on the topic of a possible European Defence and it seems that this construction will dominate the political agenda over the coming years.
Some premonitions on this subject:
Ø European defence will be built, in particular, on the reactivation of the Franco-German partnership, which was so politically well-drafted by the recent Treaty of Aachen;
Ø The German Chancellor will most likely take over the Presidency of the European Council, and a Frenchman will have the honour of being the European Commissioner (Vice President) on the Defence Portfolio. We will presumably rely on Michel Barnier, EPP (favourable context if Macron's MEPs will join the new EPP), former European Commissioner for 10 years and the current Brexit negotiator;
Ø European patriotism will converge with the label "Made in the EU", especially when we refer to the European production of security systems;
Ø European defence policy will develop as a complementarity to NATO, especially geographically. Where is NATO not present? In Africa ...
Ø The defence policy will also attempt to respond to other complex issues such as migration or development policy;
Ø Through coordination on the African continent, the EU can become a more important player in African politics and the economy. Let us not forget the colonial past of some European countries, but also the current competition with the US and China;
Ø The current debate on the future of the EU can also incorporate an approach to future EU-Africa relations. We will probably find this topic on the Strategic Agenda after the Sibiu Summit.
Dan LUCA / Brussels
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