Working in the
private sector and flirting with the academic environment, I am pleased to be
able to predict on the record from Brussels the top 10 topics for the political
year 2020꞉
1. Great
Britain is leaving the European Union and will approach the United States of
America politically and economically, to gradually consolidate the new global pole
of power "USA-UK";
2. The media attention
will focus more on Scotland and the work of Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon to take
out the country from the United Kingdom. The 2013 debate is back, but the
context of the independence referendum is totally different;
3. The
European Union will launch the new industrial policy based on a balance between
the consolidation of European industrial champions and the internationalization
of SMEs. Germany will have a hard word to say in relation to this subject;
4. The Green
Deal will also become a tool to block products from China if they do not have
adequate environmental standards;
5. French
President Macron will increasingly lose electoral capital in France, asking
himself if he will enter the second round of the 2022 presidential elections;
6. Africa will
become a major topic at EU level, just as in the early 2000s there were talks
of the great enlargement of the EU. Of course, there is no question about
African countries to join the EU, but it is just a repositioning of European
interests in the African context;
7. Artificial
intelligence becomes the coolest subject at European level, but the EU still has
problems with their effective sectoral approach (industry, health, education,
media, etc);
8. The
European defense will develop rapidly on a "complementary to NATO"
strategy;
9. The
American continent is going through elections and - my opinion, although many
do not want it - we will have the re-election of the current president;
10. The Party
of European Socialists will change its leader at the 2020 congress and start
building again for the 2024
European elections. The last left president of the European Commission
ended his term in 2004.
Dan LUCA / Brussels
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