The question tries to give insight into the European scene in the second half of 2014. The calendar for the next 15 months it is important to follow. Until February 2014, the European political parties have the time to nominate their official candidates for the position of President of the European Commission. Also early next year, each national party of the 28 European countries will establish a list of candidates for the European Parliament elections of May 2014. It is especially important to look at these lists and to see who the leaders are in each country and each party.
After the European elections the political groups in the European Parliament are formed. There will be no chance that one group wins the majority of the seats, but perhaps there will be a series of concentric circles of management in the European Legislative Forum. It will be most likely that the two large groups form a duo: the European People's Party and the European Left Party. Those will have the simple majority in order to choose the EP President. My prediction is that the current leader of the Socialist & Democratic Group in the European Parliament (the Austrian Hannes Swoboda) will become president, taking over the office from Martin Schulz. After two and a half years, in January 2017, a leader of the EPP Group from the Parliament will take up the office for president, according to prior agreement.
Another EU political topic is the "European parties". This will create a security belt to isolate anti-European parties or the extremist. I mention here the link to Left – Popular - Liberal - Green in particular. We hope that these groups hold together at least 80% of the seats in Parliament.
The stakes of the elections are enormous. Basically in a few months, a new College of Commissioners will be formed, the chairmen of committees of the European Parliament will be appointed, and the European Union appoints a new president.
Dan LUCA / Brussels