Pole of Power in 2019

2019 will be a reference year for the European Union. Brexit, with or without deal, leaves the community without the terrible child, Great Britain. Is it good? Is it bad? It’s hard to give an immediate, factual answer, without the emotions of separation. But it is important to see what we do with the rest of the European family. We cannot live in the past and compromise the future.

Some milestones at the beginning of the year are beneficial for those interested in the dynamics of the continent:

Ø  Germany is very strong and will openly dominate the European political arena in 2019. Chancellor Merkel will handle the EU, because she is willing and able. Manfred Weber has the symbolic chance of embodying the German direction of the EU by being elected as President of the European Commission.

Ø  France needs Germany and Germany needs France. Only together the French industry can be upgraded, and the European champions' project is the perfect glove for an Emmanuel Macron under big internal pressure. France can easily take over the leadership of European defence after the departure of the British...

Ø  A brave vision of the Future EU is needed, but this project is good to be communicated and implemented by decision-makers. The most plausible current European pole of power is the couple Merkel-Macron, around which some European governments (especially the BeNeLux) and political coalitions gravitated.

Ø  EPP is the party that will dominate the European Parliament also after the elections of May 26, 2019, but needs a refreshment, a redefinition. Christian-Democrat? Patriotic? Family? Political doctrine or pole of power? Let's not forget that EPP has a big problem in some of the founding countries, I refer to France, Italy, but also to the situation in the Netherlands or Belgium...

Ø  The European Left's dilemma is enormous. In Germany there is no space because of the social policies of the current chancellor, in France there is total chaos after Hollande, Italy does not count after the moment of glory "Renzi 2014", and in Spain, although in power, there is much volatility. Maybe we need to redefine the Left. Social Democrats? Socialists? Communists? Left or Radical Left? Hard to say…

Ø  Liberals are a pro-European, even federalist force at European level, but is it enough to play in the big European decisions?

Ø  The world counts on the Greens... especially as Europeans want the EU to be "the world champion of the clean environment". Yes, the idea catches on and has an impact, but the political reality is different... many European countries have no green MEP and the situation will not change enormously in May 2019 either.

Ø  Anti-European forces will win ground at the upcoming European elections. Certainly we will have political reconversions more attached to patriotic-nationalist pragmatism than the European project. It's hard to get out of the negative spiral as long as the big European themes are migration, security, terrorism, defence, even fake news...

Ø  Positive issues, such as the internal market, the euro budget, the competitiveness of European companies, jobs, open markets, green standards, digitization, should be brought back into the European public discussion.

Ø  European institutions are not perfect, and there is room for more connection with citizens, but there are examples for other continents. Let's look at the full part of the glass too...

Ø  A fine calibration of the European vision is crucial in 2019. A plan without margins can boomerang, as was case with the European Constitution of 2005. But reheating the European stew cannot be the answer expected by the citizens. Vision must address also practical issues, not just those related to values. We risk having anti-European forces that come with clear and effective messages.

Ø  A good thought at the end to the Romanian Presidency of the EU Council! Much success, especially in preparing the Sibiu Summit focused on the future of the EU!

Dan LUCA / Brussels