We
will witness enormous surprises in the political year 2019. Let's
look at the political actuality through different lenses, which certainly do
not fall into the category "politically correct".
I’m launching
10 topics, using pertinent questions:
1.
Venezuela. Is
this the perfect crisis for the US President in order to win next autumn’s
elections? Everything is possible, since the same scenario was tested 16 years
ago, when President George W. Bush forced the invasion of Iraq and then had a turnkey
re-election. I do not believe in spontaneity, since last year Colombia became
the only global partner for NATO in Latin America and now the country hosts
thousands of American soldiers on its territory...
2.
Angela Merkel. No one doubts the support of the German Chancellor for the European project.
She is definitely a convinced pro-European... In 2019 we redefine the Future of
Europe, and a European Union of 2040 needs great ideas (vision) and real
leaders to communicate these ideas. Can you imagine the power of the EU with
Angela Merkel as President of the European Commission?
3.
France. Why do two EU countries sign a new treaty, called the
Treaty of Aachen? France needs Germany and Germany needs France. Politically, but especially economically. Only by
sticking together can the French industry recover, and the European
(industrial) championship is the perfect glove for Emmanuel Macron under great
internal pressure. And France can take over the leadership of the European
defense after the departure of the British...
4. Siemens-Alstom.
Do you really think these
companies are launching a procedure without knowing about competition law in
the EU? It is actually a test case of the European economic project. We cannot
create industrial champions at EU level because of competition laws, but at the
same time European companies are too small to compete with American, Chinese or
even Japanese. It is a priority over the next five years to change the approach,
while respecting the SMEs at the same time.
5. Brexit. Who is the winner in the medium term for UK leaving the
EU? I do not mean the next 5-10 years, because a divorce procedure is normally
always painful for both parties. Without the British,
however, the European Union can move to the next phase of European integration.
I refer here to the common euro
budget, common taxation, European army or coordinated foreign policy… to recall
just a few sensitive points.
6. EU with two speeds. Is it still not clear what the delimitation is between
Euroland countries and those that have not adopted the European common
currency? Let’s wait and see what happens next… The euro budget becomes the
hard core of European deciding countries, and the rest is periphery.
7. Russia. Do we still believe in the concept of Europe from the
Atlantic to the Urals, presented by General Charles de Gaulle after
the Second World War? It is clear that there is no question of Russia entering
the EU. The country does
not want it, because as the Moscow leaders said in the 1990s, "we are too
big to enter such a small structure. Take the map of the world and see the
reality.” That does not mean there are no strategic cooperation bridges. Germany
needs natural gas, which the Russians possess abundantly, and the Russians need
technology and expertise, which Germany has in its fullest. Why not openly acknowledge the reality, as a former
German Chancellor Schroeder presented it: "Europe, in order to survive
politically between superpowers such as the US and China needs the potential of
Russia. We need this country's market and, above all, its resources."
8.
Apolitical movements. What is still apolitical in a globalized
and super-technological world like the EU? The emergence of apolitical groups
in the public space, but with a huge political impact, is driving the public
agenda in some European countries. It is hard to combat citizens who are not politically enrolled, high
school students or even young people in general. About 6 months ago we had
scenarios in relation to a possible macronization of the European Parliament, and
the "Yellow Vests" movement also comes from France. Is
it a revolution? Is it
Melanchon's revenge for the 2017 presidential election? In the same context we
can look at the high school students' protest in Brussels. They promise a
weekly street move to save the planet by openly protesting against an inert
Belgian political class... I remember with great sympathy the efforts of young
British people who wanted to prevent Brexit. It was a pity that the impact was
not the one they wanted, but these exteriorizations matter.
9. MEPs in yellow vests. What can the recent meeting of the Italian Deputy
Prime Minister with the "Yellow Vests" in Paris bring? In practice, a
leader of the French movement can find himself/herself on an eligible place on
the European elections list of the 5-Star Movement. The same procedure was tested
by FIDESZ (Hungary) with MEP Tokes (Romania) in 2014.
10.
Financial Markets. The context of the European elections in May 2019 will put the financial
markets on fire? In the opinion of experts from the City of London, EP
elections are strongly monitored. For the first time a clear link between the
composition of the next European Parliament and the Market is mentioned. A catastrophic
scenario is still possible for the EU and the world of finance is curious if
pro-Europeans will win the European elections...
Dan LUCA / Brussels
