In general, political forecasts are not easy, and the Corona crisis greatly complicates market predictability. An interesting example was 2019, an atypical year from the European point of view, with the European elections in May. Those involved in the dynamics of European legislation knew that good communication was crucial in the first quarter of the year, with an intelligence exercise for 6 months until the new power system was identified (influential MEPs, European Commission component, priorities of the new 5-year political cycle), and then returning in force, in autumn, with new and solid arguments.
In trying to analyze the European political year 2021, we cannot identify a
major event that would overshadow the Corona virus. The current crisis will have
a decisive influence on
2021. Starting from the scientific hypothesis that a pandemic extends over a
period of 18 months, since
we have now only reached
the 9th month, we can advance a theory that by July 2021 we are expected
to emerge from the crisis. Of course, the timing of the discovery of the
vaccine, vaccination of the population and immunization can play a key role in
accelerating or slowing down this
post-crisis date. But now we have only these elements that
help us anticipate as much as possible next year and we do not have better
tools for
such an analysis.
The political issues that will gradually amplify within the European public space
are also ricochets of the Corona crisis. We will talk more and more about money
and power. The EU Recovery
Fund is already present, and the packages for each Member State are now being
discussed, as well as how they
should be used. As a prediction, the absorption of these
funds, mostly through national mechanisms, will take maybe even more than 5
years. It is the eternal discussion of the absorption of European funds, some
countries will have a rate of 30% and others of 100%.
Gradually, the question of who pays the bill for the economic recovery will
become visible. Without wanting to, we will have a discussion about taxation,
about how we finance the European system, with wide ramifications in regional,
national, European or even global competences. The subject of a euro budget
will appear as a solution, especially since there is a project related to this
file from a
few years ago. Inevitably we will discuss more, once again, about the hard core
of Europe and other countries that are not part of this select group.
Patriotism and nationalism will be accentuated, coming mainly from the East of the continent or even
from the South.
In this cocktail of power, public funds, and fiscal balance, there will
be a more pronounced polarization between the two extremes, the federalist and
the anti-European.
The economic crisis, the relaunch of a project for
European society, the redefinition of European funding, a new European project
and a balance between the EU and the member countries will capture the interest
of citizens. The elections in Germany, in September 2021, are an interesting
horizon to make an analysis of the pandemic and the impact on the European
project.
Based on these predictions, the recommendation is to
analyze the European affairs
market not only in terms of legislative developments, but also in relation to
economic recovery funds. The first 6 months of 2021 may look a bit like the
present. It is not advisable to have massive physical events until next spring,
and
online interaction is recommended. Of course in the fall of 2021 we can talk
about a return to new normal, trying to learn from the pandemic crisis as much
as possible.
Dan LUCA is the Vice President of EURACTIV
Media. He lectures at universities in Brussels and Bucharest. He is the author
of the book "Mapping the Influencers in EU Policies".
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